Can lunar cycles tell us anything useful about Bitcoin?
This is a public longitudinal experiment, not a claim. We test whether lunar cycles and Bitcoin's astrological natal chart show any useful relationship with market behaviour — considered alongside conventional technical analysis, price structure, volume, market regime and real-world catalysts.
We record observations before events and then record what actually happened — including the failures.
Current experiment
All experiments →A prospective, pre-registered test of the New-Moon / local-low correspondence, registered before the window opened and judged by rules fixed in advance.
Test criteria: A strict 7-day pivot on the daily LOW: a day t in [T0, T+3] qualifies when LOW[t] < LOW[t-1], LOW[t-2], LOW[t-3] AND LOW[t] < LOW[t+1], LOW[t+2], LOW[t+3]. Strictly less-than on both sides; ties do not qualify. Defined on intraday lows, not closing prices. A qualifying pivot is not invalidated by a later lower low.
Tomorrow’s BTC natal outlook
All outlooks →Tomorrow’s outlook has not been published yet. Daily outlooks are normally published one day in advance.
Latest prediction & result
All predictions & results →PREDICTION Latest prediction
NM Triangle Breakout14 October 2026, NM+4: BTC is consolidating in a daily contracting triangle near $81,650. The working hypothesis is an upside breakout during NM+5 to NM+6 (15–16 October), consistent with the proposed post-New-Moon...
RESULT Latest result
No result has been recorded yet.
Research journal
Full journal →-
Small Inverse head and shoulders
Expecting pump to 85k to take us back into bull penant range
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Double top possible, likely consolidation
Support seems strong at 84K, but the chart shows a potential double top.
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Bull Penant Forming
Following confirmation of the larger daily Cup & Handle breakout, BTC is consolidating near its highs in a potential 4H bull pennant. A breakout would favour continued strength into the...
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Micro breakout, then confirmation of the larger structure
[FACT] On 21 September 2026 BTC closed **$86,602.91**, up +6.73% from the previous close of $81,142.61. [TECHNICAL] That close is above both the micro rim ($81,300-$81,600) and the larger daily...
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A large daily cup-and-handle, and a micro structure inside it
[TECHNICAL] Two nested structures were identified, and both are recorded here with their levels *before* the outcome, so they can be judged afterwards. **The larger daily cup-and-handle** was...
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The informal NM+0.4 timing idea - assessed separately, and not a formal test
This record exists to keep the informal idea **separate** from the pre-registered protocol. They are different claims, tested against different data, and one must never be allowed to stand in for...
Important Bitcoin developments
All tracked news →News is context for the experiment, not the point of it. Only a handful of genuinely material developments appear here.
- Regulation Crypto audits give investors false sense of security as Q3 hacks cost $1.18 billion, Hacken says CoinDesk · 18 Oct 2026
- Etf Institutional Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest day in a month thanks entirely to BlackRock CoinDesk · 20 Oct 2026
- Etf Institutional BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF draws $665 million inflow, highest since October 2025 The Block · 20 Oct 2026
- Etf Institutional BlackRock files for bitcoin ETF offering downside protection and upside exposure to IBIT The Block · 19 Oct 2026
- Etf Institutional AnchorWatch Trust Company launches bitcoin custody service with up to $370 million in insurance per client The Block · 19 Oct 2026
Methodology & the paper
The rules are fixed in advance and published. Lag windows, pivot definitions and scoring weights are never changed because recent price action did not fit.
Everything is free through 31 December 2026.