Observations
Things noticed and written down. An observation records what was seen and when it was seen — it is not a prediction and makes no forward-looking claim.
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Micro breakout, then confirmation of the larger structure
[FACT] On 21 September 2026 BTC closed **$86,602.91**, up +6.73% from the previous close of $81,142.61. [TECHNICAL] That close is above both the micro rim ($81,300-$81,600) and the larger daily cup rim / confirmation zone...
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A large daily cup-and-handle, and a micro structure inside it
[TECHNICAL] Two nested structures were identified, and both are recorded here with their levels *before* the outcome, so they can be judged afterwards. **The larger daily cup-and-handle** was identified around the mid-$75k area on 16...
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The informal NM+0.4 timing idea - assessed separately, and not a formal test
This record exists to keep the informal idea **separate** from the pre-registered protocol. They are different claims, tested against different data, and one must never be allowed to stand in for the other. **What the informal idea...
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What the 11-14 September window actually did
Verified daily OHLC for the frozen window. The pre-registered test is a strict 7-day pivot on the daily **LOW**: `LOW[t] < LOW[t-1..t-3]` AND `LOW[t] < LOW[t+1..t+3]`. | Date | Daily LOW | Qualifies? | |---|---|---| | **11 Sep (T0, New...
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The formal New-Moon test opens - and how it differs from the informal idea
The formal prospective test begins at the **New Moon, 11 September 2026, 03:27 UTC** (computed exactly: 03:26:55). Two things must be kept apart, and the separation is the point: **1. The paper's protocol (formal,...
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A bearish head-and-shoulders that provisionally validated, then failed
In early September a bearish head-and-shoulders structure with a neckline break was identified and appeared **provisionally validated**. It then **failed and was reclaimed**. This record exists precisely because it failed. Preserving...
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Dovish Fed repricing overwhelms the lunar and technical setup
[FACT] On 3 September 2026 BTC closed **$81,271.74**, up **+5.14%** on the previous close of **$77,300.48**. [SOURCE] The move was associated with dovish repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. A source link should be attached...
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Prospective Full-Moon +4.4-day turning-window observation
With the Full Moon at **28 August 2026, 04:18 UTC**, the published +4.4-day mean lag places a turning *window* around **1-2 September 2026**. This is recorded as a **window and a context, not a standalone entry instruction.** The mean...
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August 2026: a high-fit cycle, and where the low actually formed
The August 2026 cycle was noted at the time as a **high-fit cycle**: a Pattern Fit Score of about **82.6/100** before the waning leg completed, described then as roughly the 97th historical percentile. **A note on that figure.**...