Consolidation then pump into NM

{
  "as_of": "2026-09-24T07:10:28.908711",
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-09-24",
    "price": 84067.47,
    "change_24h_pct": -2.44,
    "change_7d_pct": 10.4,
    "change_30d_pct": 6.46,
    "annualised_volatility_30d_pct": 44.15,
    "ma50": 74525.56,
    "ma200": 70757.28,
    "rsi14": 64.23,
    "regime": "uptrend (price > 50d > 200d)",
    "support": [
      77300.48,
      75776.13,
      75612.51,
      73856.35
    ],
    "resistance": [
      86602.91
    ],
    "all_time_high": 124752.53,
    "pct_from_ath": -32.61
  },
  "lunar": {
    "as_of": "2026-09-24T07:10:29.067299",
    "phase_name": "Full Moon",
    "illumination_pct": 93.65,
    "age_days": 13.16,
    "is_waxing": true,
    "last_new_moon": "2026-09-11T03:26:55",
    "last_full_moon": "2026-08-28T04:18:26",
    "days_since_new_moon": 13.16,
    "days_since_full_moon": 27.12,
    "next_new_moon": "2026-10-10T15:50:01",
    "next_full_moon": "2026-09-26T16:48:57",
    "days_to_next_new_moon": 16.36,
    "days_to_next_full_moon": 2.4,
    "upcoming": [
      {
        "event_type": "full_moon",
        "label": "Full Moon",
        "exact_at": "2026-09-26T16:48:57",
        "strength_score": 49.4,
        "nodal_distance_deg": 35.304
      },
      {
        "event_type": "new_moon",
        "label": "New Moon",
        "exact_at": "2026-10-10T15:50:01",
        "strength_score": 35.6,
        "nodal_distance_deg": 49.783
      },
      {
        "event_type": "full_moon",
        "label": "Full Moon",
        "exact_at": "2026-10-26T04:11:44",
        "strength_score": 39.7,
        "nodal_distance_deg": 66.006
      },
      {
        "event_type": "new_moon",
        "label": "New Moon",
        "exact_at": "2026-11-09T07:02:03",
        "strength_score": 11.3,
        "nodal_distance_deg": 80.881
      }
    ]
  },
  "natal": {
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "natal_moment_utc": "2009-01-03T18:15:05",
    "notable_transits": [
      {
        "transiting_body": "Pluto",
        "natal_point": "Mercury",
        "aspect": "conjunction",
        "orb_deg": 0.13,
        "is_applying": true,
        "weight": 1.93,
        "event_date": "2026-09-24",
        "label": "transiting Pluto conjunction natal Mercury"
      },
      {
        "transiting_body": "Pluto",
        "natal_point": "Jupiter",
        "aspect": "conjunction",
        "orb_deg": 3.36,
        "is_applying": true,
        "weight": 1.404,
        "event_date": "2026-09-24",
        "label": "transiting Pluto conjunction natal Jupiter"
      },
      {
        "transiting_body": "Saturn",
        "natal_point": "Sun",
        "aspect": "square",
        "orb_deg": 1.69,
        "is_applying": false,
        "weight": 1.371,
        "event_date": "2026-09-24",
        "label": "transiting Saturn square natal Sun"
      },
      {
        "transiting_body": "Neptune",
        "natal_point": "Moon",
        "aspect": "conjunction",
        "orb_deg": 1.76,
        "is_applying": false,
        "weight": 1.331,
        "event_date": "2026-09-24",
        "label": "transiting Neptune conjunction natal Moon"
      },
      {
        "transiting_body": "Neptune",
        "natal_point": "Pluto",
        "aspect": "square",
        "orb_deg": 1.43,
        "is_applying": true,
        "weight": 1.131,
        "event_date": "2026-09-24",
        "label": "transiting Neptune square natal Pluto"
      }
    ],
    "transit_count": 21,
    "disclaimer": "Experimental interpretive layer. Astrology is not established financial forecasting and is reported here alongside price structure, volume, regime and real catalysts - never instead of them."
  },
  "active_experiments": [
    {
      "id": 3,
      "ref": "",
      "title": "September 2026: Full Moon Local High Test",
      "status": "planned",
      "summary": "Testing if the Full Moon on September 26, 2026, marks a local high in Bitcoin's price.",
      "hypothesis": "This test is worth recording as it explores the potential correlation between lunar phases and Bitcoin price movements, contributing to our understanding of market dynamics.",
      "prediction": "This experiment aims to determine whether the Full Moon on September 26, 2026, marks a local high in Bitcoin's price. We will observe the price action from the Full Moon date (September 26) and up to 4.4 days later (October 1, 2026). The hypothesis is that a local high will form during this window. A local high is defined as a price point that is higher than the prices immediately preceding and following it within the specified time frame. This test is consistent with previous observations that suggest lunar phases may influence market behavior. The strength of the Full Moon's influence will be recorded in advance as context only and is not evidence that a high must occur.",
      "test_criteria": "A local high forms in the window from September 26, 2026, to October 1, 2026. A local high qualifies when the price on a given day is higher than the prices on the two preceding days and the two following days.",
      "invalidation_criteria": "No local high forms in the specified window.",
      "outcome": "pending",
      "starts_at": null,
      "ends_at": null
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "ref": "EXP-2026-09-NM",
      "title": "September 2026: the pre-registered New-Moon low test",
      "status": "observing",
      "summary": "A prospective, pre-registered test of the New-Moon / local-low correspondence, registered before the window opened and judged by rules fixed in advance.",
      "hypothesis": "A strict local low forms in the window T0:T+3 following the New Moon (11-14 September 2026 inclusive).",
      "prediction": "If a qualifying low forms, measure the maximum upside at exactly 7, 14 and 21 days from the pivot. The New-Moon geometry strength recorded in advance is context only and is not evidence that a low must occur.",
      "test_criteria": "A strict 7-day pivot on the daily LOW: a day t in [T0, T+3] qualifies when LOW[t] < LOW[t-1], LOW[t-2], LOW[t-3] AND LOW[t] < LOW[t+1], LOW[t+2], LOW[t+3]. Strictly less-than on both sides; ties do not qualify. Defined on intraday lows, not closing prices. A qualifying pivot is not invalidated by a later lower low.",
      "invalidation_criteria": "No day in T0:T+3 satisfies the strict 7-day low pivot. A lower low forming later, inside or outside the window, does NOT invalidate a pivot that has already qualified - it is recorded separately as context.",
      "outcome": "partially_consistent",
      "starts_at": "2026-09-11T03:26:55",
      "ends_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:59"
    }
  ],
  "recent_predictions": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "title": "Pre-registered: a strict local low forms in T0:T+3 after the 11 September New Moon",
      "text": "Following the New Moon of 11 September 2026 at 03:27 UTC, a strict local low will form in the window 11-14 September 2026 inclusive (T0:T+3).",
      "criteria": "A strict 7-day pivot on the daily LOW: a day t in [T0, T+3] qualifies when LOW[t] < LOW[t-1], LOW[t-2], LOW[t-3] AND LOW[t] < LOW[t+1], LOW[t+2], LOW[t+3]. Strictly less-than on both sides; ties do not qualify. Defined on intraday lows, not closing prices. A qualifying pivot is not invalidated by a later lower low.",
      "outcome": "consistent",
      "status": "published",
      "made_at": "2026-09-11T04:00:00",
      "is_locked": true
    }
  ],
  "recent_results": [],
  "frozen_protocols": [
    {
      "slug": "website-methodology-v1",
      "version": "1.0",
      "title": "Legacy website methodology (Full Moon / New Moon pivot matching)",
      "is_frozen": true,
      "rules": {
        "price_source": "Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily Close (auto-adjusted)",
        "phase_source": "PyEphem next_full_moon / next_new_moon, reduced to calendar dates",
        "pivot_detector": "scipy.signal.find_peaks",
        "min_pivot_spacing_days": 30,
        "prominence_pct_of_median_close": 15.0,
        "max_lag_days": 14,
        "signed_lag": "pivot_date - moon_date (positive = pivot AFTER the moon)",
        "full_moon_matches": "nearest significant swing HIGH within +/-14 days",
        "new_moon_matches": "nearest significant swing LOW within +/-14 days",
        "published_benchmarks": {
          "recent_two_year_full_moon": {
            "mean_days": 4.4,
            "median_days": 4,
            "sd_days": 4.2,
            "n": 5,
            "window_from": "2024-09-21"
          },
          "2017_2026_full_moon": {
            "pct_high_after_full_moon": 71.0,
            "mean_days": 3.2,
            "median_days": 6.0,
            "n": 31
          }
        },
        "caveats": [
          "Phase-shift and null controls weaken any claim that the astronomical Full Moon uniquely causes the high.",
          "The New-Moon / local-low correspondence is the stronger empirical lead.",
          "Nodal strength is not a reliable timing predictor."
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "september-2026-new-moon-test",
      "version": "1.1",
      "title": "Frozen protocol: September 2026 New-Moon low test",
      "is_frozen": true,
      "rules": {
        "new_moon_utc": "2026-09-11T03:27:00",
        "full_moon_utc": "2026-09-26T16:49:00",
        "primary_test": "Does a strict local low form in the window T0:T+3 (11-14 September 2026 inclusive)?",
        "strict_local_low_definition": "A strict 7-day pivot on the daily LOW: a day t qualifies when LOW[t] < LOW[t-1], LOW[t-2], LOW[t-3] AND LOW[t] < LOW[t+1], LOW[t+2], LOW[t+3]. The test is on INTRADAY LOWS, not closing prices.",
        "price_basis": "Daily OHLC. The LOW column only. Closing prices are NOT used.",
        "equality_handling": "Strictly less-than on both sides, as written. A low that merely ties a neighbouring low does not qualify. Applied identically on both sides, so a flat double bottom yields no pivot rather than two.",
        "decidability": "A day cannot be judged until 3 subsequent daily bars exist. Until then the result is UNDETERMINED - never 'failed'.",
        "invalidation": "A qualifying pivot is NOT invalidated by a lower low occurring later, inside or outside the window. The test asks whether a strict local low FORMED in T0:T+3, not whether it was the cycle's lowest price. The deepest low of the cycle is a separate, separately reported measure.",
        "new_moon_strength_recorded_in_advance": 79,
        "strength_caveat": "The 79/100 figure was recorded in advance as context only. It is NOT evidence that a low must occur, and it does not enter the Pattern Fit Score. The strength formula implemented in btcmoon.lunar.phases scores this same New Moon 69.2/100; the two numbers are kept separate rather than reconciled, because tuning a formula to reproduce a historical figure would breach the research constitution.",
        "if_low_forms": "Measure maximum upside at exactly 7, 14 and 21 days from the pivot date.",
        "secondary_tests": [
          "Waxing return from the New-Moon low to the Full Moon (26 Sep).",
          "Cycle-high alignment relative to the Full Moon.",
          "Relationship to a website-defined major high (see website-methodology-v1)."
        ],
        "distinct_concepts": {
          "qualifying_strict_local_low": "The formal pre-registered test. LOW-based 7-day pivot in T0:T+3.",
          "lowest_price_in_a_wider_window": "Descriptive only. Not the test.",
          "absolute_cycle_low": "The deepest low between consecutive New Moons. Reported separately.",
          "informal_nm_plus_0_4": "A private, never-pre-registered intraday timing idea. Requires hourly data. Must never stand in for, or be conflated with, the formal test.",
          "legacy_website_new_moon_pivot": "CLOSE-based scipy.signal.find_peaks major pivot, spacing 30, prominence 15% of median close, matched within +/-14 days. A different measure entirely - see website-methodology-v1."
        },
        "final_review": "After 30 September 2026.",
        "amendment_policy": "None. Lag windows, pivot definitions, scoring weights and the strength formula are fixed for the duration of this test."
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "intraday-lunar-offset-v1",
      "version": "1.0",
      "title": "Exact intraday lunar offset (hours from syzygy to pivot)",
      "is_frozen": true,
      "rules": {
        "measured_quantity": "pivot_instant_utc - syzygy_instant_utc",
        "units": "hours (fractional days reported for readability only)",
        "moon_instant_source": "PyEphem next_full_moon / next_new_moon, exact UTC instant. NOT reduced to a calendar date - that reduction is what this metric exists to avoid.",
        "price_basis": "Intraday bars, hourly or finer. Pivot = highest HIGH (Full Moon) or lowest LOW (New Moon) in the window. Closing prices are not used.",
        "window": "T0 to T0+14 days, forward only (no look-back into the prior phase).",
        "minimum_bar_resolution": "60 minutes; daily bars are rejected outright.",
        "effective_from": "2026-09-22",
        "earliest_reliable_hourly_data": "2024-09-01",
        "back_fitting": "FORBIDDEN. This metric is never applied to the historical sample that produced the published calendar-day statistics. Hourly history does not reach far enough back, and re-specifying the measurement that generated a published claim would invalidate the claim rather than refine it.",
        "relationship_to_legacy": {
          "website-methodology-v1": "Untouched. Its +4.4 d recent mean, +3.2 d 2017-2026 mean, 71% after-full-moon share and 6.0 d median remain the reproduced figures of the historical calendar-day sample.",
          "comparability": "NONE at the value level. A fractional-hour offset and an integer calendar-day lag are different measurements. They may be reported side by side; they must never be averaged, differenced or presented as the same series."
        },
        "worked_example": {
          "event": "Full Moon 2026-08-28 04:18:26 UTC",
          "calendar_day_result": "FM+6 (high printed during 3 September 2026)",
          "intraday_result": "Not measured - precedes effective_from, and is recorded under the legacy calendar-day methodology only."
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "recent_news": [
    {
      "headline": "SEC Proposes New Regulation Crypto Assets",
      "publisher": "U.S. SEC - Press Releases",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-76-sec-proposes-new-regulation-crypto-assets",
      "category": "regulation",
      "relevance": 96.0,
      "published": "2026-08-18T17:15:48"
    },
    {
      "headline": "Spot bitcoin ETFs attract nearly $1 billion in largest daily inflow in 11 months",
      "publisher": "The Block",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-22-spot-bitcoin-etfs-1-billion-daily-inflow-416005",
      "category": "regulation",
      "relevance": 79.2,
      "published": "2026-09-22T07:44:17"
    },
    {
      "headline": "Spot bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion on Monday, the 9th largest inflow ever",
      "publisher": "CoinDesk",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/22/spot-bitcoin-etfs-attracted-nearly-usd1-billion-on-monday-the-9th-largest-inflow-ever",
      "category": "regulation",
      "relevance": 79.2,
      "published": "2026-09-22T07:40:41"
    },
    {
      "headline": "Crypto enjoys bullish bounce post-Fed rate hike: Crypto Week Ahead",
      "publisher": "CoinDesk",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/21/crypto-week-ahead",
      "category": "macro_fed",
      "relevance": 79.2,
      "published": "2026-09-21T09:12:42"
    },
    {
      "headline": "Whitehats move 52 bitcoin from the Coldcard hack to a recovery trust",
      "publisher": "CoinDesk",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/22/whitehats-move-52-bitcoin-from-the-coldcard-hack-to-a-recovery-trust",
      "category": "security_exchange",
      "relevance": 70.4,
      "published": "2026-09-22T06:27:28"
    },
    {
      "headline": "Bitcoin taps $85,000 for first time since January as crypto short liquidations surge",
      "publisher": "The Block",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-21-bitcoin-taps-85000-for-first-time-since-january-as-crypto-short-liquidations-surge-415905",
      "category": "liquidations_derivatives",
      "relevance": 70.4,
      "published": "2026-09-21T10:56:54"
    },
    {
      "headline": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement",
      "publisher": "Federal Reserve Board - Press Releases",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm",
      "category": "macro_fed",
      "relevance": 67.2,
      "published": "2026-09-16T18:00:00"
    },
    {
      "headline": "Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting",
      "publisher": "Federal Reserve Board - Press Releases",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916b.htm",
      "category": "macro_fed",
      "relevance": 67.2,
      "published": "2026-09-16T18:00:00"
    }
  ]
}