Pre-registered: a strict local low forms in T0:T+3 after the 11 September New Moon

Prediction

Following the New Moon of 11 September 2026 at 03:27 UTC, a strict local low will form in the window 11-14 September 2026 inclusive (T0:T+3).

Objective test criteria

A strict 7-day pivot on the daily LOW: a day t in [T0, T+3] qualifies when LOW[t] < LOW[t-1], LOW[t-2], LOW[t-3] AND LOW[t] < LOW[t+1], LOW[t+2], LOW[t+3]. Strictly less-than on both sides; ties do not qualify. Defined on intraday lows, not closing prices. A qualifying pivot is not invalidated by a later lower low.

Invalidation criteria

No qualifying strict local low in T0:T+3, or a materially lower close forming after the window.

Confidence / uncertainty

Moderate on direction, low on timing. In 2026, 7 of the first 8 New Moons had a strict local low in T0:T+3; full-history behaviour is regime-dependent. The New-Moon strength figure is context only, not evidence.

Made at

11 September 2026, 04:00 UTC

Horizon ends

14 September 2026, 23:59 UTC

{
  "recorded_before_window": true,
  "new_moon_utc": "2026-09-11T03:26:55",
  "strength_recorded_in_advance": 79,
  "strength_computed_by_current_code": 69.2,
  "prior": "2026: 7 of first 8 New Moons had a strict local low in T0:T+3",
  "protocol": "september-2026-new-moon-test v1.0 (frozen)"
}

This box is immutable. Corrections and outcomes are appended below as separate, separately timestamped records — the original is never edited.